[SMM Daily Review on Coal and Coke] 20250220

Published: Feb 20, 2025 16:55

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[SMM Daily Review on Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coke enterprises maintain high operating rates, ensuring sufficient coke supply. Additionally, downstream buyers are passively purchasing, leading to inventory accumulation at some coke enterprises and sluggish sales. On the demand side, end-use demand is recovering slowly, falling short of expectations. Pig iron production is increasing at a slow pace, and steel mills primarily purchase coke as needed to further suppress coke prices. In summary, the short-term oversupply of coke is unlikely to improve, and the coke market is operating stably with a weak trend. A tenth round of price cuts may occur next week.

Coking Coal Market:
The price of low-sulfur primary coking coal in Linfen is 1,400 yuan/mt, while in Tangshan it is 1,450 yuan/mt.
Fundamentally, coal mines have resumed normal production, maintaining a high level of coking coal supply. Additionally, coking coal inventories remain high, leading to a relatively loose supply. Meanwhile, end-use demand for finished steel products is still in the verification phase, and downstream coke and steel enterprises, with average profitability, are purchasing coking coal passively. In summary, coking coal prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term.

Coke Market:
The nationwide average price of Grade I metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,735 yuan/mt, while that of Quasi-Grade I metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,595 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price of Grade I metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,390 yuan/mt, and that of Quasi-Grade I metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,300 yuan/mt.
In terms of supply, coke enterprises are maintaining high operating rates, ensuring sufficient coke supply. Additionally, downstream passive purchasing has led to inventory accumulation at some coke enterprises, resulting in sluggish sales. On the demand side, the recovery of end-use demand remains slow and below expectations. The increase in pig iron production is also slow, and steel mills are primarily purchasing coke as needed to further suppress coke prices. In summary, the oversupply situation in the coke market is unlikely to improve in the short term, and the market is expected to remain stable with a weak trend. A tenth round of price cuts may occur next week.

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